A Brief Summary of the State of Afghanistan Today

A Brief Summary of the State of Afghanistan Today

In mid-April, President Biden affirmed that all US military troops would dispense from Afghanistan by Sept 11 of 2021. The mission of eliminating the threat of terrorism has spanned four US presidential terms and two decades. Biden admitted that the brutal nature of this conflict is not worth prolonging as Afghanistan’s fickle government structure cannot be transformed into a stable democracy.

The war on terrorism began after the 9-11 attacks when President George W. Bush launched a lengthy operation against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban.

“These carefully targeted actions are designed to disrupt the use of Afghanistan as a terrorist base of operations, and to attack the military capability of the Taliban regime,” said President Bush.

By December 2001, top commanders had sought refuge in Pakistan - which was a significant ally to the US. But within the borders of Afghanistan, US troops demolished the Taliban’s government and troops, forcing the Taliban to unconditionally surrender. America denied this plea, continuing the war, but now the US is begging to negotiate a peace treaty with the Taliban.

The US had desperately wanted to enforce a democratic and western lifestyle upon Afghanistan through imperialistic means. While improved public facilities were built and women enjoyed many more rights, corruption was still flagrant and the Afghan government proved to be quite incapable.

Fast-forward a few years, the Taliban slowly started to regenerate and gain more power. President Barack Obama deployed thousands of troops yet the Taliban still fought back with vigor, causing mass casualties. Mr. Obama promised that he would start moving American troops back home in 2014 after the assassination of Osama Bin Laden, the founder of Al-Qaeda. The war then transitioned into a stale-mate and Obama focused on training Afghan security forces.

When Donald J. Trump became president and continued the war, he underlined that troop withdrawal would depend on combat conditions rather than arbitrary deadlines. Interestingly, Mr. Trump completely sidestepped the Afghan government regarding formal negotiations, instead of talking to head Taliban leaders. In February of 2020, Trump signed the historic peace settlement with the Taliban, titled “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan.” This effectively called for the deployment of all US and NATO troops from Afghanistan by May of 2021. Following this, the Taliban pledged to cut any connections with other terrorist organizations, reduce overall violence, and peacefully negotiate with the Afghan government.

Despite these promising clauses, there were no controls in place to adequately measure whether or not the Taliban would complete their end of the bargain. Additionally, the Afghan government was largely excluded from this treaty while receiving little assistance in return, straining relations further.

The exodus plan has gained quite a bit of backlash, critics saying that withdrawal would undermine the already weak security and future peace negotiations. Atiquallah Amarkhel, an Afghan military general and military analyst, told the New York Times, “[The Taliban] are stronger than in the past, and if the Americans leave and don’t support and assist the Afghan army they won’t last long, and the Taliban will take over. This is what scares me most.”

The rapid timeline of the plan also worries many Afghan officials, as they greatly rely on America’s support. Afghan leaders say that police and local forces are retreating, disturbed by the new reality they face without assistance from the US. Others speculate that a civil war might break along regional lines, fueled by aggression from the Taliban.

Metra Mehran, a member of the Feminine Perspectives Campaign in Afghanistan, is worried that the US is departing abruptly without enough guarantees from the Taliban.

“Considering that the negotiations haven’t reached any agreement and security has been worsened, I am afraid it can even lead to another civil war,” Ms. Mehran said. “It is not a wise decision to leave without any concrete agreement and a feasible agenda beyond it.”

The peace settlement’s main purpose was to establish a cease-fire and a stable line of communication, but Afghan officials accused the Taliban of assassinating security force members and civilians. So because of US withdrawal and an upper hand advantage from former negotiations, the Taliban have found themselves to be in a very good position and are continuing to be stubborn in subsequent peace talks.

Afghan security forces have demonstrated to be unstable according to American commanders. As a result of poor morale, rampant desertion, and incompetent leadership, most of Afghanistan’s provincial capitals are overrun by Taliban forces. And because of this general ineptitude of the Afghan military, warlords have formed their own privatized militias, consisting of mobilized volunteer individuals.

Still, following complete US disengagement, Biden has promised to keep assisting the Afghan government and troops through large sums of money and other means. Pentagon’s Defense Security Christopher C. Miller ensures that US withdrawal “does not equate to a change in U.S. policy or objectives.” The troop cuts would still entail a sizable force that would serve to hedge in terroristic activities.

Yet a classified intelligence report stated that following the withdrawal of all international forces, Afghanistan might all be controlled by the Taliban in the next 2 or 3 years.

Elaborating, the assessment declared, “The Taliban is likely to make gains on the battlefield, and the Afghan government will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support.”

Furthermore, US withdrawal could be a cause of immense instability within other countries in Central Asia. Surrounding states are unsure how to handle such uncertainty or the growing number of Taliban units. Northern countries that border Afghanistan such as Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Russia now cannot rely on the Afghan government that formerly was quite hostile to Taliban militant groups. These bordering states must communicate directly with Taliban personnel, cutting out the middle-man that is the Afghan government, undermining the legitimacy of Afghanistan’s authority.

Taliban forces have taken over a vast strip of land running from the Herat province in western Afghanistan to Badakhshan in the north, capturing everything, including numerous districts and border crossings. Additionally, the northern city of Kunduz was captured on the 8th of August, which is devastating for the Afghan government, because Kunduz serves as a crucial telecommunication hub with Tajikistan.

The Taliban have strong ties in the northern parts of Afghanistan dating back to the mid-’90s. And because the Taliban has displaced most Afghan forces residing in the north, Kabul and anti-Taliban forces will have great difficulty recruiting allies in the north. As cultural extremism and refugee numbers grow, northern Afghanistan poses a big threat to neighboring countries. In July, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan augmented their borders resulting in an influx of refugees. Head of Tajikistan’s Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region said he worries these numbers will increase nearly threefold.

While the looming presence of the Taliban grows, the terrorist organization gains that much more media traction. Consequently, other rival organizations then join the Taliban at higher rates. So as central-Asian countries are left to their own devices, many urge these nations to form a block, directly intervening collectively.

Citations

Gibbons-Neff, T., Rahim, N., & Faizi, F. (2020, November 18). U.S. troops are packing up, ready or not. The New York Times. https://web.archive.org/web/20201118074857/https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/world/asia/afghanistan-troop-withdrawal.html.

Motwani, N., Saikal, A., Ashraf, S., Taneja, K., Gul, I., Biberman, Y., Grare, F., Motwani, N., Welsh, B., Flower, B., editors, E. A. F., Zhao, Z., Maliangkay, R., & *, N. (2021, August 11). No good options for Central Asia after US withdrawal from Afghanistan. East Asia Forum. https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/08/11/no-good-options-for-central-asia-after-us-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/.

Zucchino, D. (2021, April 22). The war in Afghanistan: How it started and how it is ending. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/article/afghanistan-war-us.html.